According to a Twitter account called @WaitingOnBiden, today is the 38th day that President Biden has not sent $2,000 stimulus payments to Americans, something he promised he would usher out immediately after he assumed office. The last relief bill passed in December, while Trump was still president. The relief bill before that was passed in late March 2020, and now we’re just a few days away from March 2021.
The good news is that the House is finally voting on the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion COVID relief plan today, which includes a $1,400 stimulus payment to those who fall within the income limits. It will pass in the Democrat-controlled House, and it is likely to pass in the Senate through a process called budget reconciliation, which essentially allows lawmakers to pass fiscal bills more quickly because it only requires a simple majority to pass, instead of 60 votes. Beyond the stimulus payments, the relief bill also contains a $400 per week federal unemployment boost. The current set of federal unemployment provisions are set to expire by March 14, essentially giving Congress a hard deadline by which to pass the relief bill.
While $1.9 trillion might sound like a lot, economists generally agree that the government should spend as much as it needs to help its citizens — that is its mandate, after all — without handwringing over what-ifs such as inflation or “overheating” the economy.
The bad news, though, is that a key part of the relief bill — a $15 federal minimum wage hike — will likely not be included. Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough ruled yesterday that the inclusion of a minimum wage raise broke the rules of what can and can’t be included in a reconciliation bill.
But what is a Parliamentarian, you ask? Turns out, it is not someone who only smokes Parliaments. The Parliamentarian is a non-partisan advisor who interprets rules and precedents within the Senate. It is an appointment and not an elected position. The Senate also doesn’t have to listen to the Parliamentarian’s rulings; the “presiding officer” of the Senate — in other words, the Vice President — can ignore the Parliamentarian. There’s precedent for that.
According to Washington Post reporter Jeff Stein, however, Vice President Harris will not be overruling MacDonough. That means that the minimum wage provision will be removed from the bill in the Senate and return to the House for another vote. It also means that any attempt to raise the federal minimum wage — which has not been raised since 2009 and remains at $7.25 — will need to be introduced in a standalone bill that won’t be able to pass via budget reconciliation, needing to clear the bar of 60 votes.
Top Democrats have already announced an alternate plan that would impose a 5% tax on big corporations if they don’t raise their wages and even tax credits for small businesses that do raise wages. But some economists are concerned that a tax disincentive, or tax credits, would not do enough to actually raise wages for a broad swath of workers. While many conservatives have bristled at the idea of a $15 federal minimum wage, American wages have generally remained at a standstill for decades. If the minimum wage had kept pace with workers’ productivity and inflation, it would be around $20 per hour right now.
We also need to acknowledge the huge impact a minimum wage hike would have on the people who have been most harmed by the pandemic. The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) recently released an analysis of wages in the past year and found that average, inflation-adjusted wages in the U.S. had actually gone up in 2020. Great news, right? Wrong. The EPI found that average wages had increased because the makeup of the American workforce had changed so drastically — a huge proportion of those who lost their jobs during the pandemic were those making low wages, or around $14 per hour or less. In contrast, people making $25 per hour and above actually saw job gains overall in 2020.
With so many low-wage jobs having disappeared, we get the illusion that there’s been progress instead of a downslide. A $15 minimum wage would be life-changing to so many Americans, and its exclusion from the next stimulus bill is an enormous disappointment.
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